On election eve, British media headlines uniformly proclaimed a version of “hung parliament, no party wins a majority.”Įarly diagnosis of the problem has centered on the complex model British pollsters use to translate public opinion into parliamentary seats, along with a version of the phenomena observed in previous elections when voters tell interviewers they are undecided or voting Labour and actually vote Conservative (Shy Tories). ![]() Stories on the type of coalition-building needed to construct a parliamentary majority were among the most frequent for weeks. Eight credible polls - some telephone, some online - blended into a poll-of-polls that drove the stalemate narrative. The British election coverage included more than four months of reporting that, like the Western Front in the Great War, a stalemate was likely between two weak parties: Labour and Conservative. At a time when polls have become more prolific and influential in the coverage of elections, the waves of new technology, voter behavior and campaign techniques are creating significant challenges to their accuracy. The latest Polish presidential polls appear to have missed the final surge of the challenger, who beat the incumbent president and forced a runoff.Īnd here in the U.S., last November’s election polls mostly identified the right winner in Senate races, but didn’t pick up on the Republican landslides that occurred in numerous states.Īlthough each of these misses can be explained, and polling in multiparty parliamentary elections is more fraught with challenges than America’s mostly two-party races, the common theme tells of a new era for polling. ![]() Israeli polling for its election of a prime minister in March never caught on to Benjamin Netanyahu’s ultimate victory. Digital Replica Edition Home Page Close MenuĪ series of recent high-profile misses by election polls in several countries has sent the worldwide polling industry into one of its moments of doubt and self-examination.īritish polls tracking the May 7 parliamentary election significantly misreported the strength of the winner.
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